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BI挪威商学院经济学教授Hilde C. Bjørnland:与以往不同的基于全球因素对产出和通胀的预测

时间: 2014-05-21 16:45 来源: 作者: 浏览量:2030 字号: 打印

主题:Forecasting output and inflation with global components. This time is different

     与以往不同的基于全球因素对产出和通胀的预测

主讲人:BI挪威商学院经济学教授Hilde C. Bj?rnland

日期:2014521(周三)

时间:下午1:00-2:30

地点:清华五道口金融学院4号楼101教室

语言:英文

摘要:

Designing a forecasting experiment where we include foreign factors in the predictive regressions, we show that there is a significant increase in short term forecasting performance of output for nearly all countries at the start of the financial crisis (2007). Hence, we confirm Imbs (2010) who using a correlation study find the financial crisis to be the first global recession in decades. However, 1-2 years into the crisis, we find that there is a substantial decline in forecast performance across the world, suggesting a recovery phase that has been far from global. Moreover, while co-movement in output increases in particular during global crisis episodes (recessions), co-movement in inflation rates instead increases systematically over time. Interestingly, we find that the countries that have the most synchronized inflation rates are the same countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their framework for monetary policy.

主讲人简介:

Hilde C. Bj?rnland is a Professor of Economics at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics, and a PhD (Dr.Polit) in Economics from the University of Oslo. She was awarded His Majesty, The King of Norway’s Gold medal from the University of Oslo for the Ph.D. thesis. Professor Bj?rnland’s main area of research is within applied macroeconomics and econometrics. She has published in leading journals such as the Journal of Monetary EconomicsJournal of International Economics, and Journal of Forecasting. Professor Bj?rnland is also the Director of the research center CAMP (Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics) at the BI Norwegian Business School. Since 2006 she has been a board member of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) and the Petroleum Price Board (PPB).